A NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER AND THERMAL RESOURCES IN NORTHEAST CHINA
WU Jin dong 1 WANG Shi li 1 ZHANG Jian min 2 (1. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 2. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China)
Based on the output of a general circulation model, DKRZ OPYC, a stochastic weather generator WGEN was adopted to simulate the possible change of water and thermal resources in Northeast China. Therefore, the shortages of using linear statistic models and climatic averages with lower resolutions in the light of climate base were avoided in the study of the impacts of climate change on climate resources. The basic features of agroclimatic resources were described according to the experiment of WGEN, such as crop growing season, active accumulated temperature above 0℃, effective accumulated temperature above 10℃ and mean precipitation at different temporal scales, etc. Especially, possible variations of extreme climate factors in the growing season were evaluated in detail, such as maximum temperature, initial date with low temperature, the number of days with higher temperature above 30℃, the number of days with daily rainfall over 50mm and maximum daily precipitation. etc. Water requirement and deficit of the main staple crops (spring wheat, spring maize, middle season rice) in Northeast China were simulated to show the matching status of water and thermal resources under present and future climate. The results indicated that thermal resources will be abundant due to rising temperature and chill injury will be alleviated under 2×CO 2 climate. Although the rainfall amount will increase under rising temperature conditions, which will provide improved moisture for crop growing and yield forming, water requirement and deficit of main staple crops in Northeast China will still expand as a result of enhancned evaporation and transpiration. Thus, agricultural production will be affected in non-irrigated areas. Moreover, extreme climatic factors will be in he more acute variation as climate averages change, which adds to the possibility of adverse impacts of abnormal weather events on crop growth and development.
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