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《Resources Science》 2005-04
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Correlation Analysis between Cultivated Land Use Change and Economic Development in Suzhou City over the Past 50 Years

LI Zhao-fu~1,2, YANG Gui-shan~1( 1. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China; 2. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China)  
Based on statistical data over the last 50 years in Suzhou City, the land use characteristics and the changing processes of cultivated land and the differences among regions were analyzed. The correlation analysis between cultivated land changes and economic development was conducted. The lost area of cultivated land at different economic development levels was estimated. The results showed: 1) the land use in Suzhou City is characteristic of intensive use, higher outputs and higher proportion of occupation by construction activities; the percentage of cultivated land to the total area decreased quickly from 48.62% in 1949 to 33.83% in 2002. The per capita area of cultivated land is about 0.0494 hm~2 far lower than the average of the country;2) With the development of economy, the area of cultivated land in Suzhou city was downward spirally with a changing process from slight increases to quick decrease to slow increase to gent decrease to rapid decrease to slow decrease to steep decrease. The per capita area of cultivated land has similar changing process; the decrease of cultivated land is great of difference among its counties, of which, Wujiang City ranked in the first place in cultivated land decrease with a decrease ratio of 1.9% per year. The annual ratio of cultivated land decrease in Suzhou City exceed the average level of Jiangsu Province and the country; 3) The area of cultivated land has an exponential decrease trend with the increase of pre capita GDP. The estimated values of cultivated area calculated by the exponential function have less errors compared with original values, which verified that it is viable using the exponential function to predict the change of cultivated land with the increase of per capita GDP; 4) The area of cultivated land occupied for the increase of 10 billion RMB GDP is 4 450hm\+2, 2 795hm\+2 and 1 178hm\+2 respectively when the per capita GDP is 10 000~20 000, 20 000~30 000 and 30 000~60 000 RMB. It is revealed that the occupation of cultivated land is decreasing gradually with the development of economy and extensive economic development is changing toward intensive one.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金(编号:40371111)。
【CateGory Index】: F323.211
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