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Factors Related to Changes in Sown Area of Major Crops in Zhejiang Province

CHEN Yu-qi~(1,2),LI Xiu-bin~1,ZHU Hui-yi~1(1.Institute of Geographic and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101, China;2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)  
The study of changes in cropland area is at the core of research on grain security and land-use/land-cover change.We used the cost-income data of fram products and rural statistical yarebooks to analyze changes in area sown in rice and cotton in Zhejiang province from 1978 to 2005.We calculated the correlation between sown area and net financial return,and the elasticity of labor inputs.The area sown in crops in Zhejiang shrunk rapidly from 4.5 million hm~2 in 1978 to 2.8 million hm~2 in 2005,a decline of 37.63%.Except for conversion of arable land,the main cause was a reduction of the multiple cropping index value,which declined 40.39% from 1997 to 2005,the largest decline in the country.Based on correlation coefficients,the impact of net return on area sown in rice was insignificant.Although net return rose at several points over the years,area sown in rice has declined steadily.Net return for cotton has had some positive impact on sown area,but not significant.These results suggest that net return is a factor,but not the most important influence on planting decisions.Sown area of rice and cotton is sensitive to labor inputs,which have a significant positive effect.When labor inputs increase,sown area expands;if labor input is reduced,sown area decreases accordingly.The elasticity coefficient for labor input increased during the study period,for rice production it rose from 0.004 during 1978~1984 to 0.70 during 1999~2005.The elasticity coefficient of labor input for cotton production changed to high flexibility(1.05) from low flexibility(0.72) during the same period because cotton production requires more labor input than rice production.These results suggest that labor input became a key factor influencing cropland area during the period when large numbers of young agricultural workers shifted to off-farm employment.Furthermore,consolidation of production into medium-scale agricultural systems may be an important development,as increased use of machinery would reduce labor input requirements and improve agricultural labor returns.
【Fund】: 国家科技支撑计划项目:“区域土地资源安全保障与调控关键技术研究”(编号:2006BAB15B02)
【CateGory Index】: F326.1
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