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《Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni》 2004-03
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Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Northwest China

ZHU Yi-zhong,XIA Jun, WANG Gang-sheng (Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101,China)  
Taking Northwest China as a study area, a new way of WRCC is explored study by combining the multi-criteria scenario analysis model, comprehensive evaluation model and other sectoral models based on the synthetic analysis of the complex system of water-socioeconomy-ecoenvironment. The first multi-objective analysis model is applied to estimate WRCC of Northwest China in 2010 and 2020 in different scenarios. Then a comprehensive index of WRCC is designed and calculated to assess different policy alternatives by evaluating the quality of WRCC with comprehensive evaluation model. The assessment of the models indicates that the situation of WRCC in Northwest China will be improved evidently in the future and the goals of water supply and demand balance can be achieved by taking such countermeasures as renovating ecological environment,developing water-saving technology and adjusting industrial structure etc. The A1+B1+C2 scenario is proved to be a preferred alternative, while reducing the rate of water resources development, improving the efficiency of water use and controlling population growth will be the key factors improving the water resources carrying capacity.
【Fund】: 中科院知识创新工程资助项目(KZCX1-10-03 KZCX1-09-02);; 中科院"百人计划"资助项目
【CateGory Index】: X26
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