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《Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni》 2019-01
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Survival probability pattern and its influencing factors of vehicles in Guangdong Province

LIN Xiaofang;XU Weijia;LIU Yonghong;LI Xiying;MA Jinling;School of Intelligent Systems Engineering,Sun Yat-sen University;Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Intelligent Transportation System;Guangdong Provincial Engineering Research Center for Traffic Environmental Monitoring and Control;Guangdong Suncere Technology Co.Ltd;  
Based on the Weibull distribution,survival patterns of different vehicle types and areas in Guangdong Province were obtained from information collected by Guangdong Vehicle Information Database,following with analysis on their characteristics and influencing factors.Furthermore,by combining vehicle population projection method(the elastic coefficient method specifically in this case),the survival patterns were used in the age distribution projection of different vehicle types in Guangdong,2030.Result showed that:1) life spans of Heavy-Duty-Passenger-Car(K1),Medium-Duty-Passenger-Car(K2) were 18 years,while that of Light-Duty-Passenger-Car(K3) and Mini-Passenger-Car(K4) were 20 years;2) life spans of Heavy-Duty-Truck(H1),Medium-Duty-Truck(H2),Light-Duty-Truck(H3),and Mini-Truck(H4) increased in turn;3) the economic developing level affected vehicle survival pattern with the evidence that life spans of K3,K4,H3,H4 in Pearl River Delta(PRD) were 3.39,5.10,4.74,4.26 years shorter than that of non-PRD.The proposed method can be used to conveniently obtain vehicle age distribution.The traffic pollution control polices,the economic developing level and variations among different vehicle types would affect the survival patterns.
【Fund】: 广东省自然科学基金(2016A030313297);; 广东省科技计划项目(2015B010110005);; 广州市科技计划项目(201704020053)
【CateGory Index】: F426.471;U491
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