Full-Text Search:
Home|Journal Papers|About CNKI|User Service|FAQ|Contact Us|中文
《Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni》 2019-01
Add to Favorite Get Latest Update

Survival probability pattern and its influencing factors of vehicles in Guangdong Province

LIN Xiaofang;XU Weijia;LIU Yonghong;LI Xiying;MA Jinling;School of Intelligent Systems Engineering,Sun Yat-sen University;Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Intelligent Transportation System;Guangdong Provincial Engineering Research Center for Traffic Environmental Monitoring and Control;Guangdong Suncere Technology Co.Ltd;  
Based on the Weibull distribution,survival patterns of different vehicle types and areas in Guangdong Province were obtained from information collected by Guangdong Vehicle Information Database,following with analysis on their characteristics and influencing factors.Furthermore,by combining vehicle population projection method(the elastic coefficient method specifically in this case),the survival patterns were used in the age distribution projection of different vehicle types in Guangdong,2030.Result showed that:1) life spans of Heavy-Duty-Passenger-Car(K1),Medium-Duty-Passenger-Car(K2) were 18 years,while that of Light-Duty-Passenger-Car(K3) and Mini-Passenger-Car(K4) were 20 years;2) life spans of Heavy-Duty-Truck(H1),Medium-Duty-Truck(H2),Light-Duty-Truck(H3),and Mini-Truck(H4) increased in turn;3) the economic developing level affected vehicle survival pattern with the evidence that life spans of K3,K4,H3,H4 in Pearl River Delta(PRD) were 3.39,5.10,4.74,4.26 years shorter than that of non-PRD.The proposed method can be used to conveniently obtain vehicle age distribution.The traffic pollution control polices,the economic developing level and variations among different vehicle types would affect the survival patterns.
【Fund】: 广东省自然科学基金(2016A030313297);; 广东省科技计划项目(2015B010110005);; 广州市科技计划项目(201704020053)
【CateGory Index】: F426.471;U491
Download(CAJ format) Download(PDF format)
CAJViewer7.0 supports all the CNKI file formats; AdobeReader only supports the PDF format.
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 3 Hits
1 ZHU Xiang-Lei et al;Study of Truck Survival Regular Pattern[J];专用汽车;2012-12
2 Cao Xiaofei,Shao Chunfu(School of City Traffic of Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044);Forecast of vehicle amount by elastic coefficient method in Beijng[J];道路交通与安全;2008-04
3 YANG Fang YU Lei,Prof. SONG Guo-hua WANG Wen PEI Wen-wen (School of Traffic & Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University);Survival Probability-based Dynamic Vehicle Age Distribution Model[J];中国安全科学学报;2005-06
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 JING Wei-gang;DONG Jie-shuang;FENG Ji-peng;College of Management, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology;College of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime University;;Forecast of the Motor Vehicle Inventory of Middle-sized and Small Cities Based on the Gray Model and It's Application[J];物流科技;2015-08
2 WANG Dong;Xi'an Aeronautical University;;Prediction of Car Ownership Based on Grey Relational Analysis and BP Neural Network[J];计算技术与自动化;2015-01
3 HUANG Zhong-xiang;REN Tao;ZHANG Sheng;School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Changsha University of Science and Technology;;Car ownership interval estimation and sensitivity analysis for city based on NARX neural network[J];长沙理工大学学报;2014-04
4 SUN Lu1,2,YU Ye1,GU Wen-jun2(1.School of Transportation,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,Jiangsu,China;2.Department of Civil Engineering,The Catholic University of America,Washington DC 20064,USA);Car ownership prediction method based on principal component analysis and hidden Markov model[J];交通运输工程学报;2013-02
5 LI Rong1,WU Jian-jun2(1.School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Rail Traffic Control and Safety,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China);Prediction of Beijing traffic carrying capacity[J];山东科学;2013-02
6 XUE Jia-ping1 ZHANG Li-li2(1.Zhejiang College,Tongji University,Jiaxing 314051,China; 2.Zhejiang Jiaxing Huanfa Environmental Scientific and Technical Co.,Ltd,Jiaxing 314051,China);Comparison of elastic coefficient method and regression analysis method prediction[J];山西建筑;2013-05
7 HAO Yu,WANG Hui(School of Traffic and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 7300700,China);A traffic policy evaluation method based on the matter-element analysis and the urban traffic jams[J];交通科技与经济;2013-01
8 HAO Han1,2, WANG HeWu1,2, OUYANG MingGao1,2 & CHENG Fei1 1 State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 2 China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;Vehicle survival patterns in China[J];Science China(Technological Sciences);2011-03
9 YANG Yanni,LU Huapu(Institute of Transportation Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China);An Impoved Prediction Model for the Stock of Urban Private Cars Based on Support Vector Machine[J];公路工程;2010-05
10 XU Yao-fang1,YU Lei1,2,HAO Yan-zhao1,SONG Guo-hua1(1.School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;2.Texas Southern University,Houston,TX 77004,USA);Development and Application of Macroscopic Emission Model[J];交通运输系统工程与信息;2009-02
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 4 Hits
1 LI Hui(School of Transportation and Automotive Engineering,Xihua University,Chengdu 610039 China),LIN Rong-na.;Application of Elastic Method of Traffic Volume Forecasting in Estimating the Feasibility of Highway Project[J];西华大学学报(自然科学版);2006-05
2 LIN Feng, JIA Yuan-hua, XU Wei (Institute of System Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044,China);Relativity analysis between minimum flow quantity of motor vehicle and the capacity of main urban road network[J];交通科技与经济;2006-02
3 ZHU Hai-qing CHEN Xue-wu Transportation College, Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China;Amount Prediction of Motor-driven Vehicles Under the Influences of Road Network Service Level[J];交通运输工程与信息学报;2005-04
4 Cao Tianjie (Dept. of Applied Maths & Mech.);A Method to Estimate Parameters in Logistic Model[J];太原理工大学学报;1998-05
©2006 Tsinghua Tongfang Knowledge Network Technology Co., Ltd.(Beijing)(TTKN) All rights reserved