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《Journal of Plant Resources and Environment》 2019-03
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Prediction on potential distribution areas of Larix kaempferi in China based on MaxEnt model

SHEN Jiapeng;CHEN Dongsheng;HONG Yifeng;SUN Xiaomei;ZHANG Shougong;Key Laboratory of Tree Breeding and Cultivation of State Forestry and Grassland Administration,Research Institute of Forestry,Chinese Academy of Forestry;East China Inventory and Planning Institute,State Forestry and Grassland Administration;  
Based on 99 distribution record data of Larix kaempferi(Lamb.) Carr. and 19 climatic variables, potential distribution areas of L. kaempferi in the current period and under the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 in two future periods(from 2041 to 2060 and 2061 to 2080) were predicted by using MaxEnt model. The results show that the areas of suitable area and high suitable area of L. kaempferi in the current period are 35.59×10~4 and 6.99×10~4 km~2, respectively, accounting for 3.71% and 0.73% of the total area of research area. In which, the high suitable area mainly distributes in "Qinling-Daba Mountain" and "Eastern Liaoning Province", and their area accounts for more than 85% of the total area of high suitable area. Compared with the current period, the area of suitable area of L. kaempferi increases continuously under four climate scenarios from 2041 to 2060 and 2061 to 2080; the area of high suitable area all increases under the scenarios of RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, while decreases under the scenario of RCP2.6. The high suitable area in "Qinling-Daba Mountain" shows a tendency to decrease in general as well as an obvious fragmentation, while that in "Eastern Liaoning Province" shows a tendency to move toward northeast(moving northward 0.8°-4.5° at latitude and moving eastward 0.9°-5.5° at longitude), and the area increment of high suitable area in Jilin Province is the largest. Main climatic variables affecting the distribution of L. kaempferi are precipitation of the hottest quarter, temperature seasonality, precipitation seasonality, and annual mean temperature, and the accumulated contribution rate is greater than 90%. The above research results can provide reference for the management of L. kaempferi under future climate change background.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金重点项目(31430017)
【CateGory Index】: S791.223
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