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《Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences》 2012-15
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Study on Prediction Model for Spatial Distribution of the Average Temperature Based on GIS

ZHANG Li-li et al(College of Environment and Plant Protection,Hainan University,Haikou,Hainan 570208)  
[Objective] The research aimed to study prediction model for spatial distribution of the average temperature based on GIS.[Method] Average temperature over the years was research object.Based on Ordinary Kriging(OK),Inverse Distance Weight(IDW),SPLINE and Mixed Interpolation(MLR),monthly temperature data from 1979 to 2008 at 18 meteorological observation stations in Hainan Island were conducted spatial grid treatment.Via contrasts and analyses on different interpolation methods,the optimum interpolation method on average temperature over the years in Hainan Island was selected.[Result] By error analyses of the four interpolation methods on average temperature in recent 30 years in Hainan Island,it was found that accuracy was MLRIDWOKSPLINE.Spatial interpolation effect of MLR was the best on average temperature in Hainan Island.Spatial distribution of the average temperature in Hainan Island had obvious south-high-north-low latitudinal zonality and vertical zonality of gradually declining as altitude rise.In addition,temperature along coast was slightly higher than that in inland.Decrease velocity of the temperature in each month in Hainan Island was 0.38-0.85 ℃/100m,and decrease velocity of the annual average temperature was about 0.74 ℃/100m.In different areas,decrease velocity of the temperature as altitude was different at different time.[Conclusion] The research provided basis for obtaining continuous distribution situation of the agricultural meteorological factor and establishing accurate prediction model of the spatial distribution in Hainan Island.
【Fund】: 海南大学‘211工程’建设项目;; 中国热带农业科学院橡胶研究所基本科研业务费(YWFZX09-03(N));; 现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-34)
【CateGory Index】: S161.2
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