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《Journal of Anhui Normal University(Natural Science)》 2007-04
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An Approach to Forecast the Tourist Number of Town Dwellers' Domestic Tour

TANG Wen-bing,ZHOU Bing-gen,ZHANG Yuan-gang(College of Territorial Resources and Tourism,Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000,China)  
Based on the analysis of the fundamental principle of Seasonal Exponential Smoothing Method,the article analyzes the seasonal tourists number of the town dwellers' domestic tour from 1994 to 2005 with the Method of Mir-Winters Exponential Smoothing,and makes the conclusion that the Method is competent for forecasting the short-term seasonal tourists number when the conditions are suitable.Simultaneously,the article points out that it is safe to forecast the short-term(within 3 or 5years)seasonal tourists number;otherwise,it will be overestimated.
【CateGory Index】: F592;F224
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【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 4 Hits
1 TANG Wen-bing,ZHOU Bing-gen,ZHANG Yuan-gang,ZHANG Xian-fu(College of Territorial Resources and Tourism,Anhui Normal University,Wuhu,241000,China);Application of Method of Mir-Winters Exponential Smoothing to Forecasting Tourists Number[J];Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources;2007-04
2 YUAN Peng 1, ZUO Xing 1, MA Guangwen 1, WANG Jing 2, YANG Daohui 1, LIU Zhili 1 (1.School of Hydraulic and Hydroelectric Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065; 2.School of Architecture and Environment, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065);The compositive method with separated periods in the forecast of system marginal price[J];Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering;2005-02
3 SHEN Yue (College of Textile and Clothing,Nantong University,Nantong 226007,China);Clothing Sales Forecast based on Time Series and Markov Chain[J];Silk;2009-11
4 Guo Xiu-ying Yin Xing-guo, Zhang Yan-yun (Southwest Petroleum Instiute, Nanchong 637000,China);The Analysis Method of Seasonal Index Number of Time Sequence of Seasonal Fluctuation[J];Application of Statistics and Management;2000-06
【Co-references】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 WANG Tien_you~(1,2),Ho Yung_ching~1(1.Department of Business Administration, Chung Cheng University 601;2.Department of International Business Management,Tainan Women's College of Art and Technology 710);Comparison Among Forecasting Approaches in Tourism Industry[J];Journal of Northern Jiaotong University;2005-03
2 LI Jun-yi1,MA Yao-feng1,YANG min2(1.School of Tourism and Environment Sciences,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi′an 710061,China;2.School of Management,Xi′an College of Finance an Economics,Xi′an 710061,China);A Literature Review on Demand Forecasting Methods in China′s Tourism[J];Commercial Research;2009-03
3 TIAN Xi-zhou (Department of Tourism Administration ,Chongqing Institute of Commerce,Chongqing 400067,China);Analysis,Forecast and Exploitation Countermeasures for Chongqing's Market of Tourists from U.S.A[J];Journal of Chongqing Institute of Commerce;2001-03
4 SUN Gen-nian XUE-jia;A predication to the demand for domestic tourism of urban and rural residents[J];Urban Problems;2009-01
5 ZHU Xiao-hua~1,YANG Xiu-chun~2 (1.Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101; 2.Institute of Natural Resources and Regional Planning,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100087,China);Forecast Models and Their Comparison on International Tourism Passenger Source of China[J];Geography and Geo-Information Science;2004-05
6 HUANG Zhenfang, YUAN Linwang, YU Zhaoyuan (College of Geographic Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China);Forecasts of Tourist Flow Features in Eco-tourism Area:A Case Study of Yancheng David's Deer Eco-tourism Area[J];Acta Geographica Sinica;2007-12
7 ZHANG Li-sheng~(1,2) (1.Center for Administrative Division Research of China, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China; 2.Henan Institute of Finance and Economics, Zhengzhou 450002, China);Analysis and Forecast of Domestic Tourism Market Scale of China[J];Areal Research and Development;2004-01
8 YANG Jun-qiang (Hunan Building School,Xiangtan,Hunan 411101,China);A forecast model of international visitor arrivals to China[J];Basic Sciences Journal of Textile Universities;2001-04
9 HUANG Yinzhu,CHEN Yali (College of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, Fujian 350007);Forecasting of Domestic Tourism Demand in Fujian Province by Using Multiple Models[J];Journal of Fuqing Branch of Fujian Normal University;2010-01
10 LU Yu-ping(Fujian Nanping Normal College,Wuyishan 354300,China);Predicting and Positioning the Tourist Source Market of Wuyishan Natural Reserve[J];Journal of Fujian Forestry Science and Technology;2005-02
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