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《Journal of Anhui Normal University(Natural Science)》 2007-04
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An Approach to Forecast the Tourist Number of Town Dwellers' Domestic Tour

TANG Wen-bing,ZHOU Bing-gen,ZHANG Yuan-gang(College of Territorial Resources and Tourism,Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000,China)  
Based on the analysis of the fundamental principle of Seasonal Exponential Smoothing Method,the article analyzes the seasonal tourists number of the town dwellers' domestic tour from 1994 to 2005 with the Method of Mir-Winters Exponential Smoothing,and makes the conclusion that the Method is competent for forecasting the short-term seasonal tourists number when the conditions are suitable.Simultaneously,the article points out that it is safe to forecast the short-term(within 3 or 5years)seasonal tourists number;otherwise,it will be overestimated.
【CateGory Index】: F592;F224
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