Full-Text Search:
Home|Journal Papers|About CNKI|User Service|FAQ|Contact Us|中文
《Modern Agricultural Science and Technology》 2015-06
Add to Favorite Get Latest Update

Research on Refined Forecast Metheod in Shenyang City

LI Dian;WANG Li-li;CHAI Xiao-ling;ZHANG Zhi;BAN Wei-long;ZHANG Shuai;ZHANG Ge;Shenyang Meteorological Bureau of Liaoning Province;Jinzhou Meteorological Bureau;  
Using the high resolution of WRF(weather research and forecasting model)model data and combining with the actual observation data,this paper tested temperature and precipitation forecast products from 2011 to 2014.The results indicated that :1regular temperature prediction accuracy was 52.8% ~76.0% in Hunnan Station.With the increasing of forecasting periods,forecast accuracy rate was on a downward trend. Regional automatic station forecast accurate rate was the highest in Liaoning University,that in Olympic Sports Center was the lowest.The temperature prediction of the mean absolute error from 1.5 ℃ to 2.5 ℃ in Hunnan Station.With the increasing of forecasting periods,mean absolute error was larger. The average absolute error was inversely correlated with the accuracy rate. Regional automatic station in the mean absolute error and the accuracy rate had no obvious correlation. 2TS score was higher in Hunnan Station automatic,the maximum value was 0.571.The weather forecasting accuracy rate of Hunnan Station mode in each time was relatively high. 3 After the correction, it was increased an average of 4. 4 % in less than or equal to 2 ℃temperature accuracy,less than or equal to 1 ℃ temperature accuracy rate increased by 8%.Regional automatic station in Liaoning University and Olympic Sports Center were negative,and others were positive.
【Fund】: 沈阳市气象局山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程项目
【CateGory Index】: P456
Download(CAJ format) Download(PDF format)
CAJViewer7.0 supports all the CNKI file formats; AdobeReader only supports the PDF format.
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 5 Hits
1 Ding Jinajun 1 Hu Wendong 1 Ding Yonghong 2 Chen Xiaojuan 2 Mu Jianhua 2(1 Ningxia Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Preventing and Reducing, 2 Ningxia Provincial Meteorological Office, Yinchuan 750002);Operational Platform of Refined Regional Temperature Forecasting for Ningxia Province[J];;2005-03
2 Gu Xiangqian1 Li Yan2 Cheng Yong3 Kang Hongwen1 Wang Pengyun1) (1 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081;2 Dalian Meteorological Office,Liaoning Province,Dalian 116001;3 Huaihua Meteorological Office,Hunan Province,Huaihua 418000);Provincial/Prefectural-Level Fine Weather Forecasting System[J];Meteorological Science and Technology;2007-02
3 Yang Xiaoxia 1 Li Yuhua 1 Li Changyi 2 Jiang Boren 3 Wang Jianguo 3 He Yekun 3 Gu Runyuan 4 (1 Shandong Province Meteorological Observatory, Jinan 250031; 2 Shandong Province Meteorological Institute; 3 Shandong Province Meteorological Bureau; 4 Shandong Province Meteorological Center);Weather Forecast Techonology Research For Guidance in Shandong Province[J];Meteorological Monthly;2003-11
4 Jiao Meiyan(National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081);The Ways to Enhance the Weather Forecast Skill[J];Meteorological Monthly;2007-11
5 Yang Qiangmin Ji Xiaoling Wen Ruenqin(Ningxia Meteorological Observatory, Yichuan 750001);The weather forecast system with daily rolling prediction[J];METEOROLOGICAL MONTHLY;1998-06
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 YANG Xiao-ling et al(Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster in Gansu Province,Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction,Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Lanzhou,Gansu 730020);Study on Fog Climate Characteristic and Forecasting Method in East of Hexi Corridor[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2010-07
2 HUANG Ju-mei et al(Yueyang Meteorological Bureau,Yueyang,Hunan 414000);Analysis of A Heavy Rainstorm Process in Main Flood Season of 2009 in Hunan Province[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2010-21
3 MA Xiao-gang et al(Fuxin Meteorological Bureau in Liaoning Province,Fuxin,Liaoning 123000);Analysis on the Forecast Characteristics of K Index and Low-altitude Jet Stream in the Rainstorm Process[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2010-34
4 YANG Xiao-ling et al(Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology China Meteorological Administration、Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster in Gansu Province、Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction CMA,Lanzhou,Gansu 730020);Climate Characteristic of Thunderstorm and Forecast Method Study in Wuwei City[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2010-36
5 HUANG Ju-mei et al(Yueyang Meteorological Observatory,Yueyang,Hunan 414000);Daily Variations of Temperature in Lakefront and Mountainous areas and Application of European Center 850 hPa Temperature Field[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2011-07
6 LIAO Ren-guo et al(Wugang Meteorological Bureau of Hunan,Wugang,Hunan 422400);The Contrast of Two Precipitation Models of Two Precipitaion Process[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2011-21
7 JIANG Hai-quan et al(Zhuzhou Meteorological Bureau,Zhuzhou,Hunan 412003);Analyses of a Rainstorm Process in Zhuzhou on June 15,2011[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2012-10
8 CHEN Song WANG Jing YUAN Chunfeng(Zhumadian Meteorological Office,Zhumadian 463000);A Brief Introducation to the Operational System of Forecast Service in Zhumadian City[J];Atmospheric Science Research and Application;2010-01
9 WEN Mingsheng①② WANG Lianjun① LIAN Jianfa② LIU Yanhui② TANG Can② LI Tiefeng②(①School of Civil Engineering & Architecture,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044)(②China Institute of Geo-Environmental Monitoring,Beijing 100081);EFFECTIVENESS EVALUATION ON METEOROLOGICAL EARLY WARNING OF REGIONAL GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS[J];Journal of Engineering Geology;2011-06
10 DING Wen-kui1,2, YANG Xiao-ling2, YANG Jin-hu3, ZHOU Wen-xia2 (1.Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Gansu Province Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction,Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Administration,Lanzhou 730020,China; 2.Wuwei Meteorological Bureau,Wuwei 733000,Gansu Province,China; 3.Dingxi Meteorological Bureau,Dingxi 743000,Gansu Province,China);Study on Climatic Characteristics of Low Temperature in the East Hexi Corridor and Forecast Method[J];Arid Zone Research;2011-05
China Proceedings of conference Full-text Database 2 Hits
1 Liu aimei 1 Li jingyu 1 Miao zhicheng 1 Cao zhenyu 2 Zhaobin 3 Liu xuefeng 4 Yao taiqiang 5 Yangbin 1 Sun yuefei 1 Yin xiaohua 6(1.The Meteological Bureau of Zhangjiakou City,Zhangjiakou 075000,2.The Meteological Bureau of Kangbao County,3.The Meteological Bureau of Yu County,4.The River Course Department of Qingshui River in Zhangjiakou City,5.The Meteological Bureau of Huailai County,6.The Middle School of Xinbu Town in Yangyuan County);The Meteological Service for the water-needing and water-saving Irrigation of Vegetable Crops in the Flatland Area of Zhangjiakou[A];[C];2010
2 ZHAO Wen-jing;ZHAO Zhong-jun;SHANG Ke-zheng;WANG Shi-gong;NIN Gui-cai;Department of Atmospheric Science,Lanzhou University;Central Meteorological Station of 92493 unit of the Chinese People's Liberation Army;;A Study on Detailed Forecast of Cloud Cover in Yuzhong[A];[C];2014
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 LIN Jian ling, QING Dan yu (Guangxi Meteorological Station, Nanning, Guangxi, 530022);Study on the County-to-county and Day-by-day Rolling Forecast Operation System for Air Temperature[J];Journal of Guangxi Meteorology;2002-02
2 QI Ming\|hui,XIAO Zi\|niu,YAN Hong\|ming(Meteorological Institute of Yunnan, Kunming 650034, China);An Improved Method MOS Forecast Based on Circulation Characteristics[J];Plateau Meteorology;2003-04
3 GAO Rongzhen,YANG Yuqiang,SUN Guiping (Qingdao Meteorological Observatory,Qingdao 266003,China);STUDY ON REFINED WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR QINGDAO OFFSHORE ZONES[J];Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology;2007-04
4 Chen Liqiang 1,2 Han Xiujun 3 Zhang Lixiang 3 (1 Physics School,Beijing University,Beijing 100871, China; 2 Institut e of Atmosphere Environment, CMA, Shenyang 110016, China; 3 Shenyang Central observatory, Shenyang 11 0016, China);Study of Station Precipitation Forecasting Method Based on MM5 Model Output[J];;2003-05
5 Zhu Zhengxin; Yang Qiuming (Jinngsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing 210008)Xu Jingping (Wuhu Meteorological Observatory, Wuhu 241000);THE APPLICATION OF KALMAN FILTER TECHNIQUE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTING BASED ON THE FACTORS OF T42 PRODCTION[J];Scientia Meteorologica Sinica;1995-01
6 Jiang Yong Zhao Ming Tang Jianping Su Bingkai (Key Lab for Mesoscale Severe Weather of MOE and Department of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093);APPLICATION OF A NEW BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME IN MM5 AND COMPARISON OF DIFFERENT BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERIZATION[J];Scientia Meteorologica Sinica;2002-03
7 Chen Yuying Chen Xiaoguang Ma Jinren Ma Shaiyan(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster prevention and Reduction of Ningxia,Yinchuan 750002);A STUDY ON SUBTLE MOS FORECASTING METHOD OF WIND[J];Scientia Meteorologica Sinica;2006-02
8 Bei Gang (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science,Beijing 100081);Visualizing Numerical Weather Models Output by Using Vis5D Package on PC[J];METEOROLOGICAL MONTHLY;2000-11
9 Wang Jianguo (Shandong Meteorological Bureau, Jinan\ 250031) Li Yuhua\ Geng Bo\ Wu Wei (Shandong Meteorological Observatory);A Proceeding Method of Grid Factor for Objective Forecast[J];Meteorological Monthly;2001-03
10 Yang Xiaoxia 1\ Zhang Aihua 2\ He Yekun 2\ Zhu Pingsheng 2\ Liu Sufang 1\ Li Feng 1 (1 Shandong Meteorological Observatory,Jinan\ 250031 2 Shandong Meteorological Bureau);An Objective Local County Forecast System for Hailfall in Shandong[J];Meteorological Monthly;2002-10
©2006 Tsinghua Tongfang Knowledge Network Technology Co., Ltd.(Beijing)(TTKN) All rights reserved