Analysis on the Relationship Between Accumulative Heavy Rainfall and Natural and Anthropogenic Factors in China
KONG Feng;WANG Yi-fei;LV Li-li;YAN Xu-xian;China Meteorological Administration Training Center;China Meteorological Administration Development Research Center;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education;College of Management Science and Engineering,Shanxi University of Finance& Economics;
Recent studies have noted a worldwide increase in the occurrence of extreme-precipitation events,this increase has been attributed to warming climate.Although other anthropogenic factors are recognized to be important,their relative contributions remain unclear.This paper used daily rainfall data from 659 meteorological stations in China,large scale climatic and anthropogenic indices to identify major causes and quantify their contribution.The results showed that,the decadal heavy rainfall amount(HRA),heavy rainfall days(HRD)and heavy rainfall intensity(HRI) increased to 68.71% 、60.15% 、11.52%,and the increasing range of station number were 84.22% 、84.22% 、54.48%,presented a "rapid increase-slow increaserapid increase" in the time change process.The analysis suggested that although this trend could be explained by both large-scale climate phenomena and regional anthropogenic activities,the latter such as urbanization,industrialization and associated air pollution had the strongest influence.Contributing roughly at the same magnitude,such factors explain 61.54%,58.48% and 65.54% of the variance in HRA,HRD,and HRI respectively.The expansion of spatial distribution of HRA and HRD over time showed a statistically significant and increasing correlation with the spatial distribution of population density and annual low-visibility days.Chinese total population at the county level,visibility of panel data and heavy rainfall amount,heavy rainfall days,heavy rainfall intensity in china had significant correlation,the spatial correlation coefficient increase gradually from the 1950 s to 2000 s,the county population increased from 0.35,0.36,0.40 to 0.54,0.55,0.58 respectively,visibility days average increased from 0.36,0.38,0.48 to 0.55,0.57,0.58,further evidence of rapid urbanization had triggered a significant increase in heavy rainfall in China.
【Fund】： 中亚大气科学研究基金“中亚地区暴雨时空变化及其影响因素诊断”(CAAS201804);; 国家自然科学基金面上项目“北京城市热岛效应与强降水事件的关系研究”(41775078)
【CateGory Index】： P461
【CateGory Index】： P461