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Impact of human factors on environment in a Silk Road economic belt node city

YU Wenbao;SONG Xiaoyu;JIAN Fuhui;Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;Economic Research Institute of Gansu Province;  
To construct"OBOR"has been upgraded to a national strategy,Northwest China will become the frontline of reform and opening. With the introduction of STIRPAT model,analyzing the impact of human factors on the environment and predicting the future carbon emissions in a Silk Road economic belt node city show that the human factors are the significant driving forces for carbon emissions,with a goodness of 95. 2%; the elastic coefficients of energy consumption intensity, affluence and population are 0. 511,0. 285 and 0. 222,respectively. The carbon emission rises steadily in the business as usual scenario,however,in the policy scenario and low carbon scenario there is a inflection point with a peak in 2025-2033. The peak of low carbon scenario arrived eight years earlier than that of policy scenario,reducing the peak amount of 407 900 tons. Finally,suggestions are made for policy makers based on the analysis results,that is to control the population size,to optimize the industrial structure and to strengthen pollution control.
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