Reliability Analysis in Power System Optimal Planning by Probabilistic Flow Method
Li Fengling Sun Shaoxian(Tsinghua University) Chen Kai(Department of Econonics and management)
A new method related to the evaluation of power system is proposed in this paper. The generating and transmitting capacities are considered as random variables and network flow graph with probabilis- tic arc capacities is used as system model. Several reliability indices are obtained by analysis of maximum feasible flow and generalized minimum cut. The reliability of system is evaluated, its vulnerable spots are found out by using those reliability indices and scientific basis for power system optimal planning is provided. By combining state-space decom- position with Monte-Carlo method the efficiency of computation has been improved considerably, so that the evaluation of reliability for power system could be computed conveniently with mini-computers.