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《Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)》 2008-01
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UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF NON-POINT SOURCE POLLUTION IN DANING RIVER

YU Hong SHEN Zhenyao(School of Environmental Science;State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control,Beijing Normal University,100875,Beijing,China)  
The origin and the pollution load of non-point sources are uncertain,which makes controlling and managing non-point sources difficult.Analyzing the uncertain effect factor of non-point source provides the basis for controlling measure.Using Daning river watershed as the study area,runoff and soil load data for the period of 2000—2004 are applied for parameter calibration and validation.Monte Carlo method is used to analyze the uncertain effect factor of runoff,soil load,organic N,NO3-N and TP.Results indicate that if the uncertain component of model parameters are neglected,it would cause the non-point source pollution load to be underestimated and the relationship of model input and output to be non-linear.Uncertainty of non-point source pollution follows the law of period change,uncertainty is bigger in the summer and smaller in the winter.The uncertainty of runoff is less,the uncertainty of soil load organic N,NO3-N and TP are bigger,and the uncertainty source is mainly affected by parameters related to the flow generation process and soil property.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究发展规划资助项目(2003CB415204);; 国家自然科学基金资助项目(40771193)
【CateGory Index】: X522
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