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《Journal of Jiangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition)》 2017-06
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The Nowcasting and Short-Term Forecasting of Regional Economic Growth——A Case of Jilin Province

WANG Yonglian;WANG Yongjing;School of Statistics,Jilin University of Finance and Economics;  
Mixed data sampling model can grab lots of high-frequency data information for short-term forecasting and nowcasting,which is a data-driven model and has the characteristics of timeliness,accuracy and effectiveness. The model's empirical results in real economic growth forecast of Jilin Province shows that mixed data sampling model with AR term is a very effective short-term direct forecasting model. The weight combination forecasting of mixed data sampling model significantly improves the prediction accuracy and robustness. The final results show that Jilin economic is reaching the bottomed with fluctuations,which means economic operation of Jilin province during the " 13 th Five-Year Plan" period will show a steady trend.
【Fund】: 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(15YJC790055);; 吉林省社会科学基金(2014BS23)资助项目
【CateGory Index】: F127
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