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《Journal of Chengde Petroleum College》 2010-04
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Research of RRGM(1,1) Model and Its Application

TANG Shi-xing 1,WANG Ying-xin1,ZHANG Yan-hua2(1.Chengde Petroleum College,Chengde 067000,Hebei,China;2.Shang Bancheng Middle School of ChengDe county,Chengde 067411,Hebei,China)  
In this paper we establish an RRGM(1,1) model and make a comparison between GM(1,1) and RRGM(1,1) to check the effectiveness of the improved forecasting model-RRGM(1,1).Referring to the classical model-GM(1,1),we formulate a new sequence by using the sum of predicting sequence and the absolute value of residual sequence and write a program for this new sequence by using Matlab to forecast the volume of entrance tourists in 2009 and 2010.By using the new model to forecast the volume of entrance tourists from 2003 to 2008,the foresting results are more accurate compared with GM(1,1) model.By comparing and analysing several examples,we conclude that the RRGM(1,1) is suitable for forecasting the entrance tourists volume with accuracy.
【Fund】: 河北省科学技术研究课题:Z2010210
【CateGory Index】: F224;F592
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