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《Journal of Chongqing University of Technology(Natural Science)》 2017-08
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Prediction of the Consumption Level for Peasants Based on GM(1,1) Optimization Model

LI Haiyang;College of Management and Economics,Tianjin University;  
To make the the background and the gray value of traditional gray GM(1,1) model more coordinated,this paper does some optimization on the background value. Based on the optimized grey GM(1,1) model,this paper selects the level of consumption of Chinese farmers from 2000 to 2014,and predicts the consumption level of Chinese farmers in the next few years. The results show that,GM(1,1) optimization model can reduce the prediction error,and improve the prediction accuracy,so it is suitable for short-term prediction; at the same time,the consumption level of peasants over the next few years will keep a steady growth,and it will reach 19 303 yuan by 2020,which is beneficial to achieve steady economy growth in China.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(71081340331)
【CateGory Index】: F323.8
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