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《Science of Surveying and Mapping》 2013-01
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Application of grey-time series combined model in subsidence deformation prediction

GAO Ning①②,CUI Xi-min①,GAO Cai-yun②(①College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology,Beijing 100083,China;②Department of Survey & Urban Spatial Information Engineering,Henan University of Urban Construction,Henan Pingdingshan 467044,China)  
Regarding forecasting the subsidence and deformation of modern building as the main research purpose,the paper discussed the features and the scope of application of GM(1,1) model and autoregressive(AR) model,and a combined modeling and forecasting method based on optimized GM model and AR model was proposed to forecast the deformation.According to the monotonously increasing characteristics and the nonlinear characteristics of subsidence deformation time series,the subsidence deformation was decomposed into tendency part and random part,then the tendency part was predicted by the GM(1,1) model,and the random part was predicted by the AR time series forecasting model.Through the experimental results,it finally drew a conclusion that this hybrid method has a higher forecasting precision to the complex problems than the single method.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(41071328);; 国家重点基础研究发展规划(973)项目(2007CB209400);; 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NECT-07-07098)
【CateGory Index】: TU196
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