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《Science of Surveying and Mapping》 2016-08
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An optimized gray model deformation forecasting modeling based on Markov theory

LI Kezhao;LI Zhiwei;ZHAO Leijie;School of Surveying and Landing Information Engineering,Henan Polytechnic University;Collaborative Innovation Center of BDS Research Application;  
The original values,conformation of background values and correction of residual errors perform important factors to the precision and stability of gray GM(1,1)model.In this paper,the optimal initial values were selected by the least square principle,and new background values were created by exponential function and the residual sequence was corrected by normalized residual sequence method.Although the forecasting precision of optimized GM(1,1)mode was improved,it was still affected by random fluctuation of data easily,and the stability of it was still unsatisfactory.Markov model can reduce the fluctuation of data forecasting and improve the stability of forecasting the model.Based on above,combing the optimized GM(1,1)model and Markov theory,the optimized gray Markov forecasting model was proposed.At last,the effectivity of traditional GM(1,1)model,optimized GM(1,1)model and optimized gray Markov model were compared based on practical data of some buildings.The result showed that the fitting and forecasting accuracy of the optimized gray Markov model was better than that of traditional GM(1,1)model and optimized GM(1,1)model,which improved the applicability and stability.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(41202245 41272373);; 河南理工大学骨干教师资助项目(72105/090)
【CateGory Index】: TU196.1
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【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 6 Hits
1 Zhang Junzhong;Lei Weiwei;Wang Rui;Cui Jianwei;Song Lei;Henan Provincial Academy of Building Research;School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering,Henan Polytechnic University;Henan Institute of Surveying and Mapping Engineering;;Application of GM(1,1) and Line Regression Model in the Deformation of Building[J];河南科学;2015-03
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【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 LI Kezhao;LI Zhiwei;ZHAO Leijie;School of Surveying and Landing Information Engineering,Henan Polytechnic University;Collaborative Innovation Center of BDS Research Application;;Application of grey line Markov model to the deformation monitoring of buildings[J];测绘工程;2016-10
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4 LI Kezhao;LI Zhiwei;DING Anmin;MENG Fujun;School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering,Henan Polytechnic University;Collaborative Innovation Center of BDS Research Application;College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Tarim University;;Deformation Prediction Model of Gray Line Weighted Non-Equidistance GM(1,1)[J];大地测量与地球动力学;2016-06
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10 LI Kezhao;LI Zhiwei;ZHAO Leijie;School of Surveying and Landing Information Engineering,Henan Polytechnic University;Collaborative Innovation Center of BDS Research Application;;An optimized gray model deformation forecasting modeling based on Markov theory[J];测绘科学;2016-08
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