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《Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin》 2013-01
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MODELING RELATIONSHIP AMONG CARBON EMISSION, ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH BY ARDL IN THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA

ZHAI Shi-yan1,2,WANG Zheng1,2,3(1.Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science,Ministry of Education,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China; 2.Ministry of Education Science and Technology Policy and Management,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100080,China; 3.College of Environment and Planning,Henan University,Kaifng 475004,China)  
There is a close relationship between carbon emissions,energy consumption and economic growth.Whether implementation of carbon emission reduction measures will affect the economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta region and what kind of relationship among energy consumption,energy structure and carbon emissions are the urgent problem which are thought about in making the carbon emission reduction policies in the development of the Yangtze River Delta region.This paper examinesd the casual relationship between carbon emissions,energy consumption and economic growth using the ARDL model and Granger causality test model in the Yangtze River Delta region(Shanghai,Zhejiang,Jiangsu)during 1990-2010.The results indicated that when the carbon emissions,energy consumption and economic growth were the regression variables,respectively,there were the long-term stability cointegration relationship between other explanatory variables and each regression variable.In the long-term relationship,there was the negative impact on carbon emissions from economic growth.The impact of energy consumption on economic growth was positive.The impact of energy consumption on economic growth was around 0.67 and statistically significant at 1% level,meaning that 1% increase in energy consumption would result in 0.67% increase in economic growth.The long-run impact of carbon emission on economic growth was negative.The impact of carbon emission on economic growth was around 0.49 and statistically significant at 1% level,meaning that 1% increase in carbon emission would result in 0.49% decrease in economic growth.Both in long-run and short-run relationship,the impact of energy consumption on carbon emissions was positive and significant at 1% level.This indicated that the proportion of high-carbon energy consumption reduction and the reduction of energy consumption would contribute to achieve the carbon reduction goals in the Yangtze River Delta region.When energy consumption was a regression variable,there was no short-run relationship among economic growth,carbon emissions and energy consumption.However,the carbon emissions had a positive impact on energy consumption both in the short and long term relationship.Granger causality studies showed that:when the lag length was 3 or 4,respectively,there was unidirectional causality from economic growth to energy consumption and carbon emissions.There was not unidirectional causality from energy consumption and carbon emissions to economic growth.And the direction causal relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption did not exist.In the short-term relationship,the impact of economic growth on carbon emissions was not significant,when carbon emissions was a regressive variable.The stability test showed that when carbon emissions,energy consumption and economic growth were as the regression variables,the calculations of the interaction impact among the carbon emissions,energy consumption and economic growth were stable and reliable.Therefore,to develop and implement appropriate energy saving and emission reduction policies will not impede the economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta region.When making energy conservation policy,government should first consider optimizing the energy structure and reducing the proportion of the high-carbon energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta region.Government should actively develop a low-carbon technologies(coal clean and efficient use of carbon dioxide capture and sequestration),and vigorously develop and use low-carbon renewable energy and new energy sources(nuclear,solar,wind,biomass,geothermal,ocean,hydrogen)alternative to traditional high-carbon fossil fuels,and improve the Yangtze River Delta region over-reliance on fossil energy consumption structure.Then,we focus on reducing energy intensity and industrial structure adjustment,optimization and upgrading.
【Fund】: 国家重大科学研究计划项目(973计划:2012CB955803);; 中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX2-YW-Q1-09);; 国家自然科学基金项目(41071089)
【CateGory Index】: X24
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