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Two “L” Trajectories:A Medium and Long-term Outlook for China's Economic Growth

CAI Fang;Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;  
At present,the major problems facing China's economy,such as economic growth slowdown,mainly arise from supply-side factors rather than demand-side factors.Therefore,it is difficult to achieve healthy and sustainable economic growth by stimulating aggregate demand.The slowdown in economic growth is due to the decline in the potential growth rate resulting from the disappearance of the demographic dividend,and there is no gap between the real growth rate and the potential growth rate.As a result,there is no chance that an economic growth will return to a potential growth rate or a "V" type of rebound.What is worth the expectation is that if follow the logic of the new norm of economic development,correctly judge the situation,promote a comprehensive deepening of reform,the release of the reform dividend will be able to slow the potential growth rate decline,even in a certain period of time to stabilize.In other words,the China's economy is expected to show two "L" growth trajectories in the near and long term,helping China to successfully cross the middle-income stage and achieve the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way.
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