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Construct the Financial Policy Analysis Frame under New Macroeconomic Situation

DUAN Bingde;Development Research Center of State Council;  
The international financial crisis has brought major challenges to the current mainstream macroeconomic theory. The role of macroeconomic and monetary policies based on neoclassical macroeconomics has triggered a reflection on both theory and policy. In 1929,western developed capitalist society broke out crisis,and formed a far-reaching economic depression. With the birth of Keynesian economics,fiscal policy has become an important weapon in the policy toolbox.The Keynesian macroeconomic theory of the 1970 s was strongly criticized by neoclassical economic theory represented by "Lucas Criticism",and the theoretical foundation of fiscal policy was shaken,and thus lose the status of an authoritative policy tool. However,with the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008,neoclassical economics was similarly corrected by the economic crisis and the role of fiscal policy was reconsidered. Generally,it is believed that in the zero interest rate conditions,fiscal policy is more effective when facing with demand shocks. Under the new situation,we should dig deep into the nature of fiscal,analyze the economic situation,and reshape the framework of fiscal policy analysis.
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