Study on data mining in respect of railway passenger ticket demand under freedom-competition market
LI Mao-sheng~(1,2), SHI Feng~1, ZHENG Guo-hua~1(1.School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075,China;2.East South University, Post Doctoral Station, Nanjing 210096,China)
The ticket demand relevant to price is a group of base parameters in optimal dynamic pricing theory, though which do not tell its own tale to managers. In this paper the facts which cause fluctuation of the ticket demand are classed into market facts and transportation property facts. The first ones include the total travel demand, another consider a group of transportation property, such as travel's time, cost, on-time, safety and comfort and etc. On the assumption of elastic demand, the proper share of different style travel get would be calculated by Box-Cox Dogit model, and we get the group of ticket demand relevant to price. But the ticket demand relevant to price is easy to be influence by market conditions, such as the latency ticket demand and the attractive effect of low-price-ticket. A new concept, proportion of the dynamic price area in option dynamic price space, is proposed in this paper. The new concept indicts how much alternative low price could be provided during sale process, so that feasible market conditions could be detected according to the latency ticket demand and the attractive effect of low-price-ticket. This is useful to make strategic decision and critical to convert optimal dynamic price theory into practice.