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《Science Technology and Industry》 2018-06
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Regional Electricity Consumption Forecast Model under the Background of Industrial Structure Adjustment

KANG Hui;NIU Dong-xiao;School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University;Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development,North China Electric Power University;  
Based on the macro environment of industrial structure adjustment,the primary selection Library of regional electricity consumption forecasting model is constructed,which mainly includes the prediction model of regional electricity consumption based on time series and the prediction model of regional electricity consumption based on the influence factors.And then,based on prediction effect feedback,set up prediction effect rating index system and build prediction effect evaluation model.Finally,on the basis of the evaluation results,the optimal model is selected as the final selection of the regional electricity consumption forecasting model in order to correctly estimate the development trend of the regional power grid and improve the competitiveness of the enterprises.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(71471059);; 高等学校学科创新引智计划资助项目(B18021)
【CateGory Index】: F121.3;F426.61
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