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《China Rice》 2016-02
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Establishment and Application of Forecasting Model on Early Southern Rice Black-streaked Dwarf Virus Disease Incidence

DONG Cheng;LIANG Shaoyu;CHEN Bing;LIANG Shengming;CHEN Guanhao;Tongqing Agricultural Technology Station;Changqi Agricultural Technology Station;Huazhou Meteorological Bureau;Huazhou Forecast Station of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests;  
The southern rice black streaked dwarf disease virus is an important viral disease that newly happen in recent years in rice area of Southern China. In order to clarify the relationship between the ecological factors and the disease incidence and improve the a-bility to predict and avoid serious losses,the author did a survey on their relationship based on the occurrence data from 2007 to 2015 by stepwise regression and path analysis. The results showed that the temperature and rain coefficient of late October last year and the late southern rice black streaked dwarf disease incidence of last year have a critical impact on the disease incidence. The author es-tablished the early southern rice black streaked dwarf virus disease incidence regression model with the ecological factors, and the model is Y=-2.7590 + 0.1895 X_1+ 0.1345 X_2+ 1.0495 X_3+ 0.0044 X_4. The fitting effect of historical data is better by using the regression equation. In 2015, the difference between the forecast values and actual values is small and the predictive ability is strong,so the model is suitable for local as well as West Guangdong region.
【Fund】: 广东省科技计划项目(2011B020416001);; 茂名市气象局气象科技计划项目[茂气(2012)114号]
【CateGory Index】: S435.111.4
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