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《Contemporary Finance & Economics》 2019-05
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Healthy Human Capital, Aging Expectation and Their Effects on Savings Growth

WANG Ren;MA Hong-qi;Chongqing Technology and Business University;China Agricultural University;  
The deterioration of the demographic structure and its negative impact on Chinese economy are receiving extensive attention in the theoretical cycle, but the demographic structure is not exogenous to savings and growth. By including the considerations of the healthy human capital and the aging expectation of the rational economic men, this paper conducts an overall inspection of the actual economic effects of healthy human capital and its specific transmission mechanism. The findings show that: firstly, healthy human capital can not only affect the demographic structure changes,but also alter the effect of demographic structure changes on savings and growth through aging expected behaviors. Healthy human capital improvement is an important factor in promoting China's savings rate and economic growth beyond the family planning policy. Secondly, there are structural differences in the economic effects of healthy human capital improvement. Along with the no more decline of the child support ratio, the positive effect relaying on the population structure is waning,hence the future healthy human capital investment should be based more on strengthening the good health expectations of the individuals and the"behavioral effect"derived from it.
【Fund】: 国家社会科学基金项目“资本—技能互补视角下驱动力转换的内生路径与政策保障体系研究”(16CJY001);; 教育部人文社会科学规划项目“产能过剩背景下的杠杆率悖论与货币政策选择”(17XJC790015)
【CateGory Index】: C924.25;F249.2;F832.22
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