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《Journal of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration》 2013-01
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Characteristics of the great earthquake magnitude distributions for active tectonic boundaries in Chinese mainland

QIAN Xiaoshi,CAI Xiaoguang,Ren Qingqing(Institute of Disaster Prevention of CEA,Sanhe 065201,China)  
In this paper,we employ peaks over threshold method based on generalized Pareto distribution to analyze the characteritics of the great earthquake magnitude distributions for active tectonic boundaries in Chinese mainland.The results show that the generalized Pareto distribution is well fitting for the earthquake data,and the shape parameter estimations are negative,corresponding to finite earthquake magnitude,so the generalized Pareto distribution provides a natural description for potential upper limit earthquake magnitude.On this basis,upper limit earthquake magnitude and 0.99997 quantile are estimated.By the comparison between the historical maximum magnitude and high quantile,we find that the quantile provides much more stable and robust characteristic than the traditional absolute maximum magnitude.Under the Poisson process hypothesis,we establish the relations between the generalized Pareto distribution and the generalized extreme value distribution and propose a method for the estimation of maximum magnitude distribution with strong earthquake data.
【Fund】: 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(ZY20120205 ZY20110101)
【CateGory Index】: P315.7
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