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A continuous real-time method for seismic intensity prediction

CHEN Yilun;JIN Xing;Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration;Earthquake Administration of Fujian Province;  
In order to predict the intensity quickly and accurately after the earthquake,we proposed a real-time prediction method using shape function.After the earthquake,the intensity can be calculated in real time,the increase of which can be described as functions.In this paper,we use four functions to show the change of intensity and then get the parameters of each function.The 1821 strong motion stations' records of 352 seismic events from Ki K-net in Japan were used in order to find the correlation between epicentral distance and parameters.In this method,epicentral distance of a station should be calculated at first,and then we get the parameters in four functions.At last,we predict the final intensity of the station during the earthquake.The results show that,by taking the method proposed in this paper,the accuracy of the intensity prediction is improved,especially for the stations whose epicentral distance between 50 and 150 kilometers.On the other hand,it is not suitable to use this method for those stations with epicentral distance lower than 50 kilometers.
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