## A preliminary study on prediction of number and maximum magnitude of great earthquakes(M_S≥7.0) before 2020 in china′s continent

**FU Zheng-xiang,DING Xiang,WANG Xiao-qing(Institute of Earthquake Science,CEA,Beijing 100036,China)**

A study on prediction of number and maximum magnitude of great earthquakes(M_S≥7.0) before 2020 in China′s continent has been down by using n-multi Bernoulli model of independence test.The results show that the occurrence probability of earthquakes with M_S=7.0~7.9 and M_S=7.5~7.9 are 1.0;the occurrence probability of earthquakes with M_S≥8.0 is 0.67 before 2020 in China's continent.According to the preceding probability level of 0.10,numbers of earthquakes with M_S=7.0~7.9,M_S=7.5~7.9 and M_S≥8.0 would range from 8 to 12,1 to 4 and 1 to 2,respectively.Therefore,the maximum magnitude of great earthquakes would be 7.5~7.9,and it doesn′t exclude the possibility of earthquake occurrence with M_S≥8.0 before 2020 in China′s continent.

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