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《Surveying and Mapping of Geology and Mineral Resources》 2008-01
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Brief Prediction of Embankment Settlement Based on Dynamic Linear Regression Model

DONG You-di1,WU Bin-jing1,WANG Guang-hui2(1.Physical Survey Team of Hydrogeology Bureau of China Coal Field Geologic Administration,Handan Hebei 056021,China;2.Faculty of Environment and Surveying & Mapping,China University of Mining,Xuzhou Jiangsu 221008,China)  
Linear regression model is one of the most widely used methods in the prediction of embankment settlement.With the data augmented,the disadvantages of the traditional linear model stands out extremely,so the accuracy of prediction is reduced.To overcome deficiencies in the traditional model,dynamic linear regression model is put forward.This model requests that the number of data used to make model is kept unchanged,new data replaced the old data,so the new parameters are gained.Ideal result is gotten through the instance.The average error of Dynamic Logarithm Model was 5.4%,and the average error of Dynamic Polynomial Model was 2.7%.For the model accuracy σ2,Dynamic Logarithm Model was σ2= 11.5 and Dynamic Polynomial Model was σ2= 2.3,both of them all below general model σ2.
【CateGory Index】: U416.1
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