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《Surveying and Mapping of Geology and Mineral Resources》 2009-01
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Comparative Research about Forecast Methods of Demanded Quantity of Construction Land-Use

ZHAO Li1,ZHAO Qiao-gui2(1.Faculty of Land Resource Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming Yunnan 650093,China;2.Cadastral Office,Department of Land and Resources of Yunnan Province,Kunming Yunnan 650224,China)  
In allusion to the method being more single of forecast of the demanded quantity of construction land-used at the past land use collectivity plan,this paper puts forward several forecast methods,and compares them,and finds out the appropriated forecast methods combined with practice,and last firms the construction land-used size.Based on construction land-used status quo for Yunnan province,the paper applies six kinds of forecast methods to contrast the data of recent 11 years,and verifies them.The research achievement indicates that the five kinds of methods of Markov,GM(1,1),sorting forecast,regression forecast,and timing sequence trend forecast,the achievement by means of these methods has the character of error being small,precision high and were up to the mustard.And then,the paper forecasts the land-used size for 2010 at the basis of relevant revision data,firms finally the construction land-used size.The research achievement could offer the reference for developing a new round land-used totality planning revision and compilation.
【CateGory Index】: F301.2
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