Comprehensive climate change risk regionalization of China
WU Shaohong;PAN Tao;LIU Yanhua;DENG Haoyu;JIAO Kewei;LU Qing;FENG Aiqing;YUE Xiliu;YIN Yunhe;ZHAO Dongsheng;GAO Jiangbo;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;
The influence of climate change on the natural environmental and socio- economic system leads to a series of adverse effects. With the development of socio- economy, climate change hazards interact with the environmental and socio-economic risk bearing body and form the spatial- temporal patterns of climate change risk. The systematic expression of the spatialtemporal patterns is the scientific foundation of climate changes adaptation. Based on the RCP8.5 climate scenario data from 2021 to 2050, we analyzed the variation trend and rate of temperature and precipitation, and assessed the hazard of extreme climate events including drought, heat wave and flood. Then, economy, population, food production and ecosystem were selected as the risk bearing bodies to assess the possible impacts of climate change as the indices qualifying the comprehensive climate change risk. Under the guidance of systematic principle, predominating factor principle, as well as the space consecution principle, we proposed a scheme of three- level regional division system for the comprehensive climate change risk regionalization in China. Finally, the Chinese mainland was divided into 8 climate change sensitive zones, 19 danger zones of extreme events and 46 comprehensive risk zones of bearing body. The result shows that the climate changes high risk zones in China under the RCP8.5 climate scenario from 2021 to 2050 include North China weak warming and precipitation increased sensitive zone, North China Plain heat wave danger zone, populationeconomy- food high risk zone, South China- Southwest China weak warming and precipitation increased sensitive zone, Yunnan- Guizhou mountain heat wave danger zone, ecosystemeconomy- food- population high risk zone; coastal South China flood- heat wave danger zone,ecosystem- food- economy- population high risk zone. The comprehensive climate change risk regionalization of China covers the climate change scenarios, the extreme events, and the possible lost information of the socio- economy and ecosystem, which can provide scientific and technological support for national and local governments to cope with the climate change and risk management.
【Fund】： 国家自然科学基金重点项目(41530749);国家自然科学基金青年项目(41301092);; 中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2013034);; “十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC19B10)~~
【CateGory Index】： P467
【CateGory Index】： P467