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《Acta Geographica Sinica》 2017-03
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Quantitative methods for detecting the impacts of climate change on the fluctuation of farming-pastoral ecotone boundaries in northern China

SHI Wenjiao;LIU Yiting;SHI Xiaoli;Key Laboratory of Land Use, Ministry of Land and Resources, China Land Surveying and Planning Institute;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS;College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University;Key Laboratory of Environmental Evolvement and Ecological Construction of Hebei Province, College of Resources and Environment Sciences, Hebei Normal University;  
The quantitative analysis of the effect of climate change on the fluctuation of farming-pastoral ecotone(FPE) boundary in northern China is a current focus in the field of response to climate change in ecological vulnerable regions. Previous studies have given profound descriptions about the effects of climate change on the boundary shifts of the ecotones qualitatively, but lacked quantitative analysis of the contribution of climate change on both spatial and temporal scales. Here, climate data from national meteorological stations and land use data interpreted from remote sensing images of the farming-pastoral ecotone(FPE) in northern China since 1970 were used to describe boundaries of the FPE based on both climate and land use in the 1970 s, 1980 s, 1990 s and 2000 s. Detection in horizontal and vertical directions method(Fish Net) and Digital Shoreline Analysis System method(DSAS) were applied to detect the spatial pattern of the FPE boundaries and to examine how much of the boundaries shifts can be explained by climate change in different periods. The results showed that the spatial pattern of the FPE boundaries and contributions of climate varied in different regions and periods. The FPE boundaries moved slightly in the northwest part of the FPE and violently in the northeast part. The shift of climate and land use boundaries in northwest segment of the Greater Hinggan Mountains showed the most highly coupling relationship and the contribution rate of climate change reached 10.7%-44.4% in east-west direction and 4.7%-55.9% in north-south direction based on Fish Net method and 1.1%-16.8% based on DSAS method from the 1970 s to the 2000 s. Most of the detections based on the two methods had consistent results. Moreover, DSAS method was better than Fish Net method in overall accuracy and suitable for the precise detection in small range, while Fish Net method was more appropriate for intuitive, rapid and low-precision analysis. Our findings highlight the importance of different adaption measures to climate change in the FPE of northern China in different regions and periods.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(41371002 41401113);; 国土资源部土地利用重点实验室开放基金(KLLU201603);; 遥感科学国家重点实验室开放基金(OFSLRSS201622);; 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所优秀青年人才基金项目(2016RC201)~~
【CateGory Index】: F327;P467
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