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《Acta Geographica Sinica》 2017-08
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Predictive analysis of passenger and goods flow of Bohai Strait Cross-sea Channel

SUN Dongqi;LU Dadao;WANG Zhenbo;XU Jianbin;SHEN Xiaoyan;WANG Xixi;WANG Zedong;SUN Zhongchao;SUN Fenghua;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS;School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-Sen University;School of Resources & Environmental Engineering,Ludong University;Development Research Center of the Region Encircling the Bohai Sea,Ludong University;  
On the basis of collecting and sorting related statistical yearbook data and actual survey data of 26 years during 1990-2015,26 indicators are selected.Guided by the economic geography and communication geography and with the axis of the regional population,economic deveoplment and urbanization trend,the prediction is made for passengers,goods and traffic flow of the Bohai Strait Cross-sea Channel(hereafter referred to as "BSCC") for the future.The prediction covers province,nation and world(international trade) involved and gives high,middle and low solution respectively.Seven characteristic years are set due to a long predicting time(2017-2050).With the technology platform of EXCEL 2013,SPSS 22.0,Arc GIS 10.2,MATLABR2011 b,etc.,the prediction is made by organic combination of multiple methods,such as the time series curve estimation method,building passenger,goods and traffic flow exponential model,building GRNN model,traffic accessibility research method,etc.,based on which the following analysis is made:(1) passengers,goods and traffic flow of the BSCC during 2020-2050 and its development trend;(2) passengers,goods and traffic flow structure of the BSCC during 2020-2050 and its development trend;(3)transportation capacity of both passengers and goods of the BSCC during 2020-2050;(4)feasibility and infeasibility of the BSCC construction;(5) future economic benefit of the BSCC construction.The prediction result shows that "catastrophic losses resulting from the extraordinarily large-scale project" will occur if the BSCC is to be built before 2050.In that case,it will also have devastating effects on sea transportation of the BSCC and cause huge losses.There is no need to build BSCC before 2040.Whether we build it in 2050 or not depends on actual social and economic development conditions before and after 2050.
【Key Words】: Bohai Strait Cross-sea Channel passenger and cargo traffic forecast analysis time series forecasting method the index model of passenger and cargo flow GRNN model traffic accessibility
【Fund】: 中国科学院院士咨询项目(Y6R60090FE);; 国家自然科学基金项目(41171096);; 国家社会科学基金特别委托项目(2007@ZH005);; 国家软科学重大项目(2700ZXQ4D166)~~
【CateGory Index】: F259.27;F512.7
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