Research on Shanghai electricity demand trend forecast based on Shapley combination model
WANG Tao;Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology;
In modern society,people cannot live without electricity supply. Stable and reliable electricity supply plays an important role in economic and social development and helps to improve people's living standards. As an important economic and trade center in China,Shanghai's power demand has been growing at a high speed. For power supply companies,it is necessary to forecast the power demand of users scientifically in order to meet the power demand of users,stabilize the power supply and help economic and social development. In this paper,ARIMA model,BP neural network model and Holt exponential smoothing model are used to model and analyze the power demand data of Shanghai from 1995 to 2017 respectively,and Shapley combination model method in cooperative countermeasure theory is used to carry out combination modeling. In this paper,the weights of the above three single prediction methods are solved,the combination model is constructed,and the power demand trend of Shanghai in the next five years is predicted according to the combination model. According to the results,Shapley combination model has higher prediction accuracy,the average relative error of prediction is only 2. 33%,and the fitting effect is good,which is conducive to the stable power supply of power supply companies and the promotion of economic and social development.
【CateGory Index】： TP183;F426.61