U.S. sanctions policy on Iran's oil export and its influence on global energy security
YANG Yu;WANG Limao;JIANG Dong;CHEN Junhua;CUI Shoujun;HAO Lisha;WANG Qiang;WANG Shaojian;WANG Changjian;LIU Litao;HU Min;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS;College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;West Asia Research Center, School of Geographic Sciences, Southwest University;School of International Relations, Renmin University of China;National Academy of Development and Strategy, Renmin University of China;School of Geographical Science, Nanjing Normal University;School of Geography Science, Fujian Normal University;Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geosimulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University;Guangzhou Institute of Geography;College of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest University;
The United States started the toughest oil embargo against Iran, and pushed its allies to cut oil imports from Iran in June 2018. What's more, the United States required all countries including the oil producer and consumer to support this unilateral sanction, or else, all the relevant countries and enterprises will face the economic sanctions with no grant of any immunity. In July, the leading oil importers such as China, Japan, South Korea, India and the European Union responded to this requirement. China rejected unilateral U.S. sanctions and maintained normal trade relations with Iran with regard to crude oil, while other countries cut their oil import from Iran sharply. Oil producers such as Saudi Arabia have also pledged to maintain stability in global energy markets through increasing oil production to supporting U.S.sanctions against Iran. In the trend of economic globalization and interconnectivity energy flows, oil embargo is bound to trigger a bureau of energy markets around the world, which will change the geopolitical pattern of oil trade and decrease oil interests of stakeholders. The key points include fluctuations in global oil prices, energy security and specific measures taken by countries to address these issues, as well as the world's energy trade and stability, energy geopolitics and its pattern. We invite experts and scholars who are professional in energy geopolitics to express their views on the possible impact of the oil embargo imposed by the United States against Iran. Experts believe the oil sanction is a strategic dilemma, and will severely impact regional geographical environment security. It will cause the world oil shortage and oil price fluctuations in the short term, but the long-term effect on the world oil market is limited. It may also lead to collapse of OPEC's agreement and change the amount and structure of global oil import. Iran will seek to discount the sale of crude oil, alternative port exports and diversified export routes to counteract the influence of the sanction. The maximum risk is that Iran may block the strait of Hormuz, but this is unlikely to happen under the current circumstances. It is both an opportunity and a challenge for China. China's normal oil trade with Iran under the "Belt and Road Initiative" is a win-win choice. It is expected that the analysis of the geopolitical pattern of energy and energy security caused by the Iranian oil embargo can provide theoretical reference for relevant policymakers.
【Fund】： 国家自然科学基金项目(41871118 41401132 41371141);; 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20040400)
【CateGory Index】： F416.22
【CateGory Index】： F416.22