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《Geographical Research》 2018-10
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The path dependence and relationship change of ecological civilization construction: Based on the panel data analysis of prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2015

MI Zefeng;ZHOU Can;ZHU Feifei;ZENG Gang;Center for Modern Chinese City Studies & School of City and Regional Science, East China Normal University;School of Economics, Zhejiang Gongshang University;The High School Attached to Zhejiang University;  
This paper, from the perspective of path dependence, collected the panel data of 108 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2015. The Pearson correlation coefficient calculation and regression analysis is used to describe the pattern and evolution of path-dependence of ecological civilization in this economic belt. And the influencing factors and changes in relations have been initially discussed. Conclusions can be drawn as follows:(1) The construction of ecological civilization is a long-term and gradual process. In the short term, there is a strong path-dependent effect on the construction of ecological civilization, and the correlation coefficient of structural similarity is more than 0.5 in80% or even more cities. All regions should have the strategic force of ecological civilization construction.(2) The establishment of a new type of benign interaction is required by the construction of ecological civilization. However, it is difficult to establish a benign interaction between the natural system and the economic and social systems at present. In the second and third stages, the regression coefficients of natural state growth rate to economic system growth and social system growth in the whole study region are 0.139*and 0.061*respectively, while the regression coefficient is not significant in the lock-in area. The results show that regions where regional lock-in exists are far behind in building the interaction between natural and other systems, and the establishment of a new type of interactive relationship has become an important breakthrough for the path creation of a region.(3) The development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt has a significant feature of functional locking and cognitive locking. The growth rate of natural response(characterized by resource utilization), economic pressure(characterized by economic growth) and social response(representation of education and social security) has a significant negative correlation with structural similarity in different stages. This means that the improvement of resources utilization technology, capital, education and social security can help to form a new type of benign interaction from three aspects: means, capital and consciousness, which is conducive to break through the current regional lock-in.
【Fund】: 国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0502701);; 国家自然科学基金项目(41371147 41771143 41701140)
【CateGory Index】: F205
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