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《Crossroads:Southeast Asian Studies》 2018-04
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An Empirical Study on Sino-Thai Interactive Relationship between Bilateral Tourism and Trade after Southeast Asian Financial Crisis

Song Jianlin;Cheng Cheng;Zhou Zeqi;  
The data of bilateral tourism and import and export trade between China and Thailand from 1997 to2016 were selected in this paper. The Johansen co-integration test,VECM model and impulse response were used to analyze the empirical relationship between them.The development of inbound tourism and outbound tourism between China and Thailand is not steady,while the development of international trade is relatively stable,and the trade deficit has always existed. There is a positive long-term cointegration relationship between the inbound tourists from Thailand to China and the import from Thailand to China as well as the relationship with the export from China to Thailand,while there is a negative long-term cointegration relationship between the outbound tourists from China to Thailand and trade deficit,and the increase of the outbound tourists from China to Thailand can reduce the amount of trade deficit. The impulse of inbound tourists from Thailand to China to import from Thailand to China has a strong continuity,while that to export from China to Thailand can only last about two years. The increase of export from China to Thailand will lead the increase of inbound tourists from Thailand to China in a short term but it is not sustainable and may be more pronounced in the third year.The increase of trade deficit will lead to a decrease in outbound tourists from China to Thailand in the current year and a downward trend in the following years,and is not conductive to the development of the outbound tourism from China to Thailand.
【Fund】: 国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国—东盟旅游与贸易互动关系研究”(项目编号:15AJY015)的阶段性研究成果;; 教育部长江学者和创新团队“中国—东盟区域发展”计划联合资助
【CateGory Index】: F592;F125;F752
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