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《Chinese Journal of Geophysics》 1991-01
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NONLINEAR DYNAMIC MODELING IN SEISMICITY ANALYSIS

ZHU YUAN-QING (Dcpt. of Earth and Space Science, Univ. of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026)SHI YAO-LIN(Dcpt of Earth Sciences, Graduate School, Academia Sinica, Beijing 100039)  
Nonlinear dynamic models have been used to study the characteristic seismicity of fault zones in this paper. Each segment of faults modeled by a basic nonlinear element, consists of an Maxwell model in series with a rigid sliding block, the constitutive relation of dynamic and static frictional strengths is assigned to the sliding block. In the modeling, the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes appears random in a short time scale, but in a time long enough, the overall behavior of the system show sort of regularities. Most actually observed precursors also appear in these nonlinear dynamic models.The concept of transition probability have been proposed to calibrate the transfer among the faults and segments. The model predicts that there are conditional safe islands in seismic activity zone 'may be of practical importance in earthquake forecasting.
【Fund】: 地震科学联合基金
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