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《Chinese Journal of Geophysics》 2004-01
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EXTRASEASONAL SHORT-TERM PREDICTIONS OF SUMMER CLIMATE WITH IAP9L-AGCM

LANG Xian Mei WANG Hui Jun JIANG Da Bang NZC and LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,China  
This study examines the predictability of extraseasonal short term climate during boreal summer by statistic method. The results are based on ensembles of JJA simulation carried out with the 9 level Atmospheric General Circulation Model developed in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP9L AGCM) for the years 1970~ 1999. It follows that the ability of the model in predicting atmospheric general circulation in mid and upper troposphere is better than that in low level. Of all analyzed variables, the prediction skill of geopotential height and surface air temperature (precipitation) is the highest (lowest). The correlation coefficient of geopotential height in the mid and upper troposphere is somewhat more zonal in spatial distribution and generally drops off away from the equator, while the prediction skill for precipitation is almost limited in equatorial eastern Pacific and a few small regions in tropics. This is an indication that accurate forecasting of precipitation is extremely difficult and complicated. Moreover, it is of considerable importance to seeking for effective correction system and new physical prediction factors in the following studies.
【Fund】: 国家杰出青年基金项目 (4 0 12 5 0 14 );; 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目(KZCX2 2 0 3 );; 国家重点基础研究规划项目(G19980 40 90 5 )
【CateGory Index】: P457
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