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《Chinese Journal of Geophysics》 2005-03
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A statistic model for the spatial distribution of precipitation estimation over the Tibetan complex terrain

SHU Shou-Juan1,YU Zi-Feng1,WANG Yuan1,BAI Ma2 1 Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather of Ministry of Education, Department of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China 2 Department of Geographic Science, Tibet University,Lhasa 850000, China  
We propose a statistic model for spatial distribution of precipitation estimation in Tibet by using both digit elevation data retrieved from satellite and precipitation data reorganized from all the twenty-seven synoptic stations in Tibet. The stations are divided into three kinds according to their terrain sloping directions. The data of precipitation of each kind is analyzed using the multinomial regression of the ordinary least-square method to establish the regression equation between precipitation and its impact factors such as longitude, latitude, height, slope, sloping direction, and close limit. The results show that the correlation between precipitation and impact factors are very significant. The mean absolute error is 0 93 mm, and the mean relative error is 1 16%. The estimated precipitation correctly replicates real distribution of precipitation qualitatively and quantitatively.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目 (4 0 3 3 3 0 3 1);; 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 (973 :2 0 0 4CB4183 0 1);; 教育部西部访问学者计划和博士点基金(2 0 0 3 0 2 840 19)资助
【CateGory Index】: P426.6
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