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《Chinese Journal of Geophysics》 2006-01
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Research on the magnitude and recurrence interval of characterized earthquakes with Magnitude≥6.7 along the northwestern portion of the Xianshuihe fault zone in western Sichuan, China

RAN Hong-Liu, HE Hong-LinInstitute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China  
The Xianshuihe fault in Sichuan Province, southwestern China is one of the major left_lateral strike_slip faults which emanate from Tibet and seem to play a key role in accommodation of India's penetration into Eurasia. In the northwestern portion of the Xianshuihe fault zone, sixteen earthquakes of M≥6.5 occurred since 1700. The northwestern portion of the Xianshuihe fault zone can be divided into four segments based on field investigation of recent earthquake ruptures, studies on time-space distribution and recurrence behaviors of historical ruptures, geometry and structure of fault zones, geophysical background, and recent seismicity. Each segment of the fault is a unit that has produced historical ruptures and able to produce future ruptures independently. To evaluate the magnitude distribution and recurrence interval of the characterized earthquakes along the northwestern portion of the Xianshuihe fault zone, we develop a framework by taking into account new geologic, seismologic and geodetic information, extending the previous analysis through a keener appreciation of the “stress shadow" caste by historical events and the influence, and further developing a moment-balanced model. The result shows that all the recurrence intervals of single-segment ruptures are about 100 to 150 years, which are much shorter than the recurrence intervals of cascade ruptures and the entire fault rupture.
【Fund】: 地震科学联合基金项目(103034);; 中国地震局“十五”重点科研项目“地震安全性评价研究”共同资助.
【CateGory Index】: P315.72
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