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《Chinese Journal of Geophysics》 2007-03
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Study on the uncertainty of ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone

ZHANG Qing-Hong~1,ZHANG Chun-Xi~1,ZHANG Zhong-Feng~2,WAN Qi-Lin~31 Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China2 Huabei Meteorology Center of CAAC, Beijing 100621, China3 Institute of Tropical Ocean Meteorology, Guangzhou 510080, China  
There are two main sources of estimate uncertainty in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), i.e., initial value-related uncertainty, model-related uncertainty. A 20-member mesoscale ensemble forecasting system including these two kinds of uncertainty is set up to simulate tropical cyclone Danny 1997. The track of ensemble mean is the best compared with all 20 members after 12 h. The sensitivity of simulation result to the two kinds of uncertainty is studied. The result shows that both 2 kinds of uncertainty make an important role in simulation, but they dominate in the different time period during the simulation. The initial value-related uncertainty dominates the simulation during 0~12 h of model integration. The model-related uncertainty grows steadily during model integration. High sensitive area of uncertainty is located where sever weather occur around the center of cyclone.
【Fund】: 973项目(2004CB418301);; 国家自然科学基金项目(40675022 40375017 40233036 60572184)资助
【CateGory Index】: P457.8
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【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 9 Hits
1 CHEN Jing~1, XUE Ji-Shan~2, and YAN Hong~31 Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu 610071 2 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 3 World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland;A New Initial Perturbation Method of Ensemble Mesoscale Heavy Rain Prediction[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2005-05
2 SUN Shu-Qing and ZHOU Yu-ShuInstitute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;Advances in Meso-Scale Dynamical Analysis of Torrential Rain Systems in Recent Years in China[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2007-06
3 CHEN Jing~1, LI Chuan~1,FENG Han-zhong~2, HE Guang-bi~1(1. Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu 610072, China;2. The Observartory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China);Short-Range Ensemble Simulation of “2003.8.28” Heavy Rain on the East Side of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J];Plateau Meteorology;2004-S1
4 LI Jun,LIAO Yi-shan,ZHANG Bing,SHEN Tie-yuan(Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain,China Meteorological Administration,Wuhan 430074,China);The Preliminary Application of Ensemble Prediction in Flash Flood Forecasting[J];Plateau Meteorology;2007-04
5 WANG Chen-xi1,YAO Jian-qun2(1.Shanghai Typhoon Institute,China Meteorological Administration,Shanghai 200030,China;2.Shanghai Meteorological Center,Shanghai 200030,China);Ensemble Forecasting of a Local Short-Lived Severe Precipitation[J];Plateau Meteorology;2008-06
6 WU Hong-yu1,CHEN Jing2(1.Guizhou Research Institute of Mountainous Area Environment and Climate,Guizhou Key Laboratory ofMountainous Climate and Resource,Guiyang 550002,China;2.Chendu Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Chendu 610071,China);Comparison Experiments of Different Resolutions and Physical Parameterization Schemes in Guizhou Precipitation[J];Plateau Meteorology;2008-06
7 NIU Zhen-yu~(1,2) ZHANG Li-feng~2(1.No.93437 Navy of PLA,Yixian 074212,China;2.Institute of Meteorology,PLA Univ.of Sci.& Tech.,Nanjing 211101,China);Specific numerical simulation of heavy rain based on ensemble forecast theory[J];Journal of PLA University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition);2006-01
8 WANG Hong-li1,ZHANG Man1,DU Qin2(1.Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;2.School of Atmospheric Sciences,NUIST,Nanjing 210044,China);Influence of Explicit Schemes on the Uncertainties of Numerically Simulated Idealized Convective Storm[J];Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology;2007-02
9 CHEN Chao-hui1,WANG Tie1,TAN Yan-ke1,LI Chong-yin1,2,XU Yuan-chun1(1.Institute of Meteorology,PLA University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 211101,China;2.Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China);Experiments of Multi-model Short-range Ensemble Precipitation Probability Forecasts[J];Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology;2009-02
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 1 Hits
1 Sun Jianhua and Zhao Sixiong (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing100029);A Diagnosis and Simulation Study of a Strong Heavy Rainfall in South China[J];SCIENTIA ATMOSPHERICA SINICA;2000-03
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