A preliminary analysis of distribution characteristics of maximum and minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range changes over China under SRES B2 scenario
ZHANG Yong~ 1,2,3,4 , XU Yin-Long~ 2 , DONG Wen-Jie~3, CAO Li-Juan~ 1,4 1 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China2 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China3 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China4 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
In this paper, the PRECIS, a regional climate model system developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, is employed to simulate the baseline (1961～1990) and future 2071～2100 (2080s) maximum and minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range change responses under SRES B2 scenario over China. A comparison of the simulated baseline results with observations shows that PRECIS can well simulate the local distribution characteristics of maximum and minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range over China. Analyses of the simulated results in the 2080s under SRES B2 scenario relative to the baseline show that there would be an overall increasing trend in the maximum and minimum temperatures in annual, winter and summer over China and the warming amplitude in the north of China is projected to be greater than in the south. There would be an increasing trend of extreme hot temperature occurrence in summer in Northeast China and a decreasing trend of extreme cold disaster occurrence in winter in North China. The changes in the annual diurnal temperature range in the 2080s under SRES B2 scenario relative to the baseline are projected to present a decreasing trend in the north of China and an increasing trend in the south of China. In winter there would be an increasing trend of diurnal temperature range in the southern region of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, while a decreasing trend in East China, Northwest China and the middle of Inner Mongolia. In particular, a stronger low value center is projected to exist in the north of the Tibetan Plateau.
【Fund】： 国家“十五”科技攻关课题(2004BA611B02);; 中英气候变化双边合作研究项目资助
【CateGory Index】： P467
【CateGory Index】： P467