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《Chinese Journal of Geophysics》 2011-04
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The state of stress of the M_s8.0 Wenchuan earthquake faulting and its implication to the aftershock hazard

LIU Bo-Yan,SHI Bao-Ping Graduate University,The Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China  
With an integration of in-situ borehole strain-meter data recorded at the Central Longmenshan Fault Zone,seismological observations,including the near-fault strong motion records,and fault slip inversion given by worldwide earthquake research groups,we have tried to investigate earthquake faulting processes and source parameters related to the M_s8.0 Wenchuan faulting processes based on the fault mechanic theory.In order to put different data sets together for analyzing and interpretation purposes,Coulomb failure criterion and earthquake energy partition principle have been used in the determination of the strength and state of stress on the fault by involving the slip-weakening frictional model.Strong motion records from Qingping station,the nearest location to the main fault(about 5km),has been used to quantitatively estimate the averaged dynamic stress drop during fault rupture.The primary results show that, for the Wenchuan main event,the seismic radiation efficiency and seismic efficiency are about 37%and 14%,respectively,the critical slip distance D_c is about 0.5 m,the fracture work and relaxation work are about 1.29×10~(16) J and 1.13×10~(16) J,respectively.The relaxation work remained inside the fault zone is about the same order as the total radiated seismic energy from the main shock.We present a simple model to predict the size and time length of aftershock sequences based on the elastostatic mechanism and regional deformation model.We propose that, if the faulting mechanism of the aftershocks inside the main fault zone obeys the same energy partition process of the Wenchuan main shock,the largest aftershock in which the radiated energy could by release by remained visco-elastic relaxation work inside the fault zone should be less than the energy released by a M_s6.9 event or much more smaller events will occur later on, and the aftershock sequences within the slowly deforming region are predicting to be significantly longer than decade typically observed at rapidly loaded plate boundaries.This infers that the aftershock sequences after the Wenchuan main shock will continue for many decades based on the current aftershock activity patterns.
【Fund】: 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-Q08-2);; 北京市科委首都圈固体地球可视化及地震危险性分析(Z08050602940801)课题;; 中国科学院百人计划资助
【CateGory Index】: P315
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