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《Chinese Journal of Geophysics》 2015-02
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Effects of the 2008 and 2014 Yutian earthquake on seismic probabilities of adjacent faults

LIU Bo-Yan;SHI Bao-Ping;LEI Jian-She;Key Laboratory of Crustal Dynamics,Institute of Crustal Dynamics,China Earthquake Administration;College of Earth Science,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;  
Static stress changes are used to explain variations of seismicity rates,off-fault aftershocks and probability changes for the occurrence of impending earthquakes.Based on the rate-and state-dependent frictional law,combined with the seismicity analysis before and after the 2008 Yutian earthquake,we quantitatively calculate the probability of earthquake occurrences near the main fault,and explain the probable causes for the 2014 Yutian earthquake.The rate-and state-dependent frictional law characterizes variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions.This formulation gives a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena.Earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes.The model provides the characteristic aftershock decay law and interpretation to aftershock parameters.We use this seismicity formulation to predict large changes of earthquakeprobabilities based on the stress changes.Firstly,we calculate the aftershock duration and seismicity rate after the main shock.Secondly,to illustrate the corresponding sensitivity in the probability of earthquakes to stress history,we use a Poisson model of earthquake occurrence for the probability of one or more earthquakes in a time interval.We have computed the earthquake probabilities of southwest and central segments of the Gonggacuo fault,and the central segments of Kengxiwar fault,where the Coulomb stress also changed after the 2008 Yutian earthquake.The earthquake probabilities of the central segments of Gonggacuo and Kengxiwar faults decreased after the 2008 Yutian earthquake,while that of southwest segments of Gonggacuo fault increased.After the 2014 Yutian earthquake,the earthquake probabilities of the southwest and central segments of the Gonggacuo fault increased,but the central segments of Kengxiwar fault decreased.This result indicates that slight variations in Coulomb stress changes can cause the seismic risk to change on the faults.It needs about 500 years that the probabilities of occurrence an M7.0earthquake exceed to 95% of the three faults mentioned above.The destructive earthquakes are likely to occur in the southwest segments of the Gonggacuo fault,while the seismic risk of the central segments of the Kengxiwar fault is low.
【Fund】: 中国地震局地壳应力研究所中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项(ZDJ2013-13);; 国家青年科学基金项目(41404044);; 中国科学院、国家外国专家局创新团队国际合作伙伴计划(KZZD-EW-TZ-19)资助
【CateGory Index】: P315
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