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《Chinese Journal of Geophysics》 2016-09
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Analysis of the seismicity changes prior to the M_S6.5 Ludian earthquake and study on the potential strong-earthquake risk for the middle part of eastern boundary of Sichuan-Yunnan

LIU Yue;TIAN Qin-Jian;Lü Xiao-Jian;SHAO Zhi-Gang;LI Wen-Qiao;Institute of Earthquake Science,China Earthquake Administration;  
For lacking physical parameters to analyze space anomalies of seismic activity which detected by Region-Time-Length(RTL)algorithm,an effort to explore the precursory parameter for quantifying seismic activity in space was conducted.The RTL algorithm and the new physical parameter-surface integral of RTL(I_(RTL)),which could synthetically evaluate the space-time changes of seismicity in a region,were applied to analyze the seismicity changes prior to the 2014 Ludian M_S6.5earthquake and the 2012 Yiliang M_S5.7,M_S5.6earthquakes.An enhancement of seismic activity was detected prior to the above earthquakes.Space anomalies mainly distributed in Zemuhe fault and west part of Zhaotong-Lianfeng fault prior to Yiliang earthquakes.Before Ludian earthquake,anomalies were detected in Zhaotong-Lianfeng fault, Mabian fault and surrounding areas.The parameter I_(RTL) of anomalous region changed from small to large,afterreaching its peak value,then reduced.Several months after the peak points,Yiliang and Ludian earthquakes occurred.I_(RTL) may be an indicator for earthquake occurrence.After Ludian earthquake,an enhancement of seismic activity was detected in the middle part of eastern boundary of Sichuan-Yunnan,and I_(RTL)was increasing since January 2015.Now,the value of I_(RTL) was larger than the peak value prior to Ludian earthquake.Perhaps a stronger earthquake may be preparing in the middle part of the eastern boundary of Sichuan-Yunnan in the future.The above studies may provide some new evidence for better understanding the seismogenic process of Ludian earthquake and earthquake precursors.
【Fund】: 中国地震局地震预测研究所基本科研业务费专项重点项目(2015IES0102 2015IES010204)资助
【CateGory Index】: P315
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