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《Chinese Journal of Geophysics》 2017-12
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Optimal analysis of parameter settings in pattern informatics(PI)algorithm:An example of Shandong and adjacent areas

ZHANG Sheng-Feng;ZHENG Jian-Chang;JIANG Chang-Sheng;WU Zhong-Liang;Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration;Shandong Earthquake Agency;  
Pattern Informatics(PI)algorithm has been developed to be a well-behaved model in assessment of intermediate-term and long-term seismic hazard across the world.To further evaluate the forecasting performance of the PI algorithm in the area covering a relative weaker seismicity and the dependency on different research regions,we use Shandong and its adjacent area as the study region and calculate the forecast results under different parameter settings,including grid size,start time and length of the forecasting window in the PI algorithm.After getting three kinds of results based on different target magnitudes ML4.0,ML4.5 and ML5.0,we modify the ROC test as a quantitative standard,"ROC value",to evaluate the algorithm′s performance.Through the above settings,we obtain several combined distributions in which the optimized parameters are locatedconsidering the evaluable retrospective and "forward"forecasting results,which are calculated under the chosen parameter settings.In the end,we discuss the physical and technical factors in the algorithm and process.The aim of this work has two aspects,one is to evaluate the performance of the PI algorithm under different parameter settings,the other is to seek the applicability of this model for the area covering relative weaker seismicity considering the selfsimilarity of different magnitude ranges.From analysis above,this work can provide fundamental references for seismic risk assessment in Shandong and adjacent areas.
【Fund】: 山东省地震局青年基金项目(JJ1609Y)资助
【CateGory Index】: P315.7
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