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《Chinese Journal of Geophysics》 1996-01
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A STUDY ON APPLICATION OF TIME DOMAIN COMBINED MODEL TO THE PREDICTION OF CLIMATICTREND BASED ON GEOLOGICAL RECORDS

YANG YONG-GUO;YU ZHI-WEI(College of Mineral Resource and Environment of Sciences,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221008,China)GUO ZHENG-TANG; LIU DONG-SHENG (Institute of Geology,Academia Sinica,Bejing 100029,China)  
Chinese loess-paleosoil records were regarded as a proxy of paleoclimatic variations during Quaternary and a time domain combined model was used to predict the long-term climatic trend in the future.For a time series,the time domain combined model could be used to determine the number of the significant harmonics and the corresponding significant period at first. Secondly, the residual error series, obtained through subtracting periodic terms from original time series, Could be Simulated with an ARMA(p, q) process.Through Combining the periodic terms and the ARMA (p, q)model,the prediction model of the time series was established.As an example for prediction test,the prediction model of min-month insolation 60°N for Jun in W/m2 Was established.The results show that time domain combined model to predict the climatic time series is available,functional and precise.Finally,this apparatus was applied to two time series respectively, the Baoji loess grain size ratio(2μm/10μm) time series (800-0 ka B. P.) and the Summer Monsoon Index(SMI) time senes(139-4ka B.P.), derived from Chemical Weathering Intensity of Weinan loess section.The two results are similar.They all indicated that the climatic trend will be dry and cold in the future thousands years.In addition,the significant penods,of T=133, 100, 89, 41: 23, 19ka, Which were extracted from the two time series,correspond to the periods of variations in the Earth's orbital geometry.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金
【CateGory Index】: P467
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