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《Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》 1994-01
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The Forecasting Problem of Persistent Droughts and Floods in Summer over the Yangtze River Valleys and Adjacent Areas

Yang Guangji(Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080)  
The forming of persistent droughts and floods in summer over the Yangtze River valleys andadjecent areas is often related to the anomalies of atmospheric circulation voer surrounding regionns ofthis area.These anomalies include the anomalies of cold-warm air,the interactions of sea-air andland-air,and moisture transfer.In causing summer drought and flood forecast of this area, we shouldnot only consider the role of an individual factor, but consider entirely the interactions and common in-fluences of these factors. The prediction step is as follows. (1) Circulation identification. According tothe features of the circulation in Ural region, sensible heat transfer, over the Tibetan Plateau, sea watertemperature of the equatorial middle Pacific, pressure distribution in Australia and moisture transfer inBay of Bengal-South China Sea, drought summer or flood summer of this area can be decided. (2) De-termining the position by shear lines. Based on some property of winter-summer correlation of atmos-pheric circulation, summer main-rainy belt will be found by January-February shear lines at 850 hPa.
【CateGory Index】: P458
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