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《Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》 2003-01
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Surface Heating in the Tibetan Plateau and General Circulation over It and Their Relations with the Prediction of Drought-Flood at Its Eastern Side

Li Yueqing (Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu 610072)  
Using Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) technique, the relationships between surface heating field in the Tibetan Plateau and 100 hPa height field and summer rainfall in Sichuan Province and Chongqing Municipality (SPCM) at its eastern side and the prediction of drought-flood are studied. The result shows that the first modes derived from SVD indicate the key coupled characteristics of the heating and the height fields with closely time-space correlation. The previous surface heating field in the Tibetan Plateau, by influencing 100 hPa height field over it, results in the anomalies of summer rainfall in SPCM at its eastern side. This asynchronous connection between heating and height and rainfall fields indicates the influence factors and physical reasons for drought-flood disaster in SPCM. The variation of the first modes derived from SVD with the previous surface heating field in the Tibetan Plateau and 100 hPa height field is a strong signal for the prediction of summer drought-flood anomalies in SPCM at the eastern side of the Tibetan Plateau. Thereby, it is put forward that a train of thought for prediction of drought-flood based on SVD technique.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目G1 9980 4 0 90 0第一部分;; 四川省科技厅重点科技项目 2 0 0 0 -0 3-2 1;; 国家“九五”科技攻关项目 96-90 8-0 5 -0 5专题共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P434
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